New techniques for forecasting dangerous weather to be highlighted at Moscow conference

Russian and foreign scientists will present new methods for forecasting dangerous weather at an international conference to be held in Moscow from September 26-29 as part of Russia's Group of Eight presidency, Dmitry Kiktev, deputy director of Gidrometsentr, a national weather forecasting bureau, said yesterday.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and other international bodies involved point to a steady rise in economic losses due to dangerous natural phenomena and the population's vulnerability to them.

Last year, according to Alexander Bedritsky, head of Russia's Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring, was described by weather experts as extreme, because it beat all records for dangerous weather phenomena for the past 15 years. "While in 2004, which was considered anomalous, there were 310 such phenomena observed, in 2005 their number rose to 345," he added.

Bedritsky made the point that 85% of "weather surprises" were reported in advance.

Current forecasts of dangerous weather phenomena are about 80% accurate. The service head said "a technical upgrade of the hydrometerological service will improve the accuracy of forecasting of dangerous events to 90% by 2012."

In 2003, Bedritsky was elected WMO president at the 14th World Meteorological Congress in Geneva for a term of four years. This is the first time a representative of Russia has taken the highest post in the WMO, a respected international organization founded in 1873 that coordinates observations of weather, water resources and climate on a global scale.